Beyond that, NASA and private space station companies may need to look to an emerging company across the pond.

A new contender emerges

Last week, a Europe-based firm, The Exploration Company, hosted an office-opening celebration in Webster, Texas. At the facility, located just a couple of miles from Johnson Space Center, founder Hélène Huby said her company was considering making Houston the base of its operations to develop a crewed spacecraft.

The Exploration Company has already won funding from the European Space Agency to develop a cargo vehicle, called Nyx, to carry supplies to the International Space Station. An initial mission may happen in late 2028 or 2029. And Huby has made no secret of her desire to build a crew vehicle.

“It’s very clear that in the United States there is a big need for an additional crew vehicle, and nobody exactly knows if Dragon will continue to serve,” she said. “And even if Dragon continues to serve, which I wish it will because it’s an amazing vehicle, then it’s good to have a bit more competition. And also the path for Boeing is kind of uncertain right now.”

Huby is seeking to attract funding both from the European Space Agency and NASA for the development of a crew vehicle, and then to leverage that money to raise additional private capital for a crew vehicle. The company has already taken preliminary steps toward this, which she estimates will require about eight years and $4 billion.

If this sounds far-fetched, perhaps it should not. Huby has shown considerable skill in working with European space officials to emerge as a leading contender to build a crew vehicle at a time when leaders there have made their desire for one clear.

Additionally, at the office-opening party this week, there were representatives from both Axiom Space and Voyager on hand. Both companies have already signed deals for cargo services. If they like what they see with Nyx, it would not be too difficult to envision them signing up for crewed missions.