For years, economists blamed declining birth rates in the United States on rising housing costs, student debt, expensive childcare and delayed marriage. Now a study points to a surprising additional factor: the iPhone.
Researchers examining the long-running decline in U.S. fertility rates found evidence that smartphones may have contributed significantly to the drop in births since 2007, the same year Apple launched the original iPhone.
iPhone may play a role in U.S. birth rate decline
In the mid-20th century, American women had an average of about 3.77 children over their lifetimes. By comparison, the U.S. total fertility rate in 2024 was about 1.6 children per woman, less than half the Baby Boom peak and well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
The decline has been blamed on the ballooning cost of living, economic uncertainty, urbanization and many other factors. But no one thought the iPhone played a role … until now.
In 2007, when the iPhone debuted, the birth rate was roughly 2.12 children per woman. It’s now 25% lower. A study published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research estimates that the spread of the iPhone could explain between 33% and 52% of the decline in fertility among women ages 15 to 44.
What?! How?
The research takes advantage of a unique historical circumstance. From 2007 through 2011, the iPhone was available exclusively through AT&T in the United States. That allowed economists to compare birth trends in regions with strong AT&T coverage against areas where access to the device was more limited.
According to the researchers, birth rates fell more sharply in places where iPhone adoption occurred sooner.
In 2007, when the iPhone debuted, the birth rate was roughly 2.12 children per woman. It’s now 25% lower. The study’s authors argue that smartphones profoundly changed how people interact with one another. Their theory is that increased screen time, reduced face-to-face socializing, greater access to online entertainment, and pornography may all have contributed to fewer pregnancies.
The study concludes that “the diffusion of the iPhone deepened the decline in births among women under 30 while suppressing the rise in births among older women.”
It’s more than just the economy, stupid
AI image: Gemini/Cult of Mac
The findings help solve a mystery that has puzzled demographers for nearly two decades: while fertility rates fell during the Great Recession of 2008, they continued declining long after the economy recovered.
Researchers increasingly suspected that broader technological and cultural shifts were influencing family formation, but finding the connection proved difficult. The recent research may have finally proved there is a link.
Birth rate decline is not only a US problem
The smartphone theory is also gaining attention because similar patterns are appearing around the world. Recent analyses have found that birth rates often began declining rapidly after widespread smartphone adoption and high-speed mobile internet became available.
Other researchers have suggested that digital technology is reshaping dating, relationships and social behavior in ways that discourage marriage and parenthood globally.
Don’t blame the iPhone for everything
To be clear, no one believes smartphones are the only explanation for the declining U.S. birth rate. Experts continue to point to economic pressures, changing social norms, later marriage, career priorities and concerns about the cost of raising children. Even the authors of the iPhone study acknowledge that smartphones are but one factor among many driving fertility lower.
Still, the research adds a new wrinkle to the debate over declining birth rates. The device that transformed communication, entertainment and shopping may also have altered one of society’s most fundamental behaviors: starting a family.
