Financial analysis firm JP Morgan has told investors to ignore reports of low iPhone 18 Pro demand and has raised its target price by $20 to $360.
Back in July 2026, JP Morgan lowered its target price to $340 on concerns about supply constraints. Now that there are reports of Apple cutting orders over low demand, though, the firm is raising its target and telling investors to look beyond the short term.
Specifically, in a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, JP Morgan entirely dismisses these reports. Its analysts say that there is nothing beyond the typical production adjustments Apple makes every year.
It is trimming its expectations for Apple's December quarter, but puts this down to how the 2026 iPhone launch was split in two. JP Morgan predicts a temporary shortfall as buyers of the regular or base iPhone wait until an early 2027 launch.
The analysts also, though, believe that demand for the iPhone 18 Pro is higher so far than for the iPhone 17 Pro, if only fractionally. That previous model is reportedly still selling well, too.
Then they also believe that there will have been an increase in sales of the Pro models because of this same split launch. Plus they predict that the shortfall will be more than countered when the iPhone Duo goes on sale toward the end of October.
Nonetheless, in the short term, JP Morgan expects that Apple will report September quarter earnings that are only just above the industry's expectations. Supply constraints are still a factor, though the analysts don't repeat that point for the December quarter.
By that December quarter, JP Morgan predicts that Apple will have sold around 8.5 million iPhone Duo units. Overall, the analysts expect the absence of a new base model will mean iPhone revenues will be down around 2% on the same period in 2025.
This is specifically on the fact that there will be fewer iPhones sold, because of no non-Pro models. However, the increased prices of the iPhones, plus the higher price of the iPhone Duo will mean Apple's December revenues will actually be up around 2% year over year.
What could go wrong
JP Morgan is optimistic about Apple's earnings but it does, of course, caution about potential problems. Much of that this time concerns the global economic situation and how that affects consumer demand.
There is also how Apple's rivals in international markets may benefit from being local there and, say the analysts, better able to affect the market through price changes. Plus overseas governments may enact tariffs that help local firms and hinder Apple.
Within Apple's own control, though, there are further factors. JP Morgan still lists the changeover of CEO as a potential problem, although it describes that as having been admirably handled so far.
Beyond that, the analysts point to Apple's acquisition of firms as having downsides. Management could be distracted, they say, plus Apple could be taking on costs and liabilities from those firms.
All of this is true, even if JP Morgan is more focused on convincing its investors to look longer term and ignore reports of low demand. In that respect, its analysts are saying precisely the same thing as AppleInsider, which is that these cuts happen every single year at exactly this same time.
