Loop Capital downgraded its projections for Apple stock and cut its price target to $330 over iPhone shipments it doesn't expect the company to recover. Apple's staggered release schedule complicates that forecast.
Analyst Ananda Baruah lowered Apple's rating from Buy to Hold and cut its price target from $370 to $330. Loop initially attributed lower production plans to memory and processor shortages.
Loop initially expected Apple to recover many of the lost shipments in 2027, but supply chain checks that the firm performed changed that outlook. The firm now believes Apple won't replace the 13 million iPhone shipments removed from its second-half 2026 plans.
It estimates that Apple reduced planned iPhone shipments for the September and December quarters by roughly 10%, but how it comes to that number isn't clear. It now expects 79 million shipments in the December quarter, compared with Wall Street's overall estimate of 85 million.
Loop also lowered its average iPhone selling price forecast from $1,239 to $1,123 for the remainder of 2026. This makes little sense, as there are only new higher-end iPhones for sale in the quarter.
For 2027, Loop raised its annual iPhone shipment forecast to 260 million but lowered the expected average selling price from $1,235 to $1,096. As a result, its projected iPhone revenue falls from $315 billion to $285 billion, despite the higher shipment forecast.
Loop cut its 2027 earnings-per-share forecast from $10.11 to $9.76 and warned that rising memory costs could hurt profits. The firm also lowered its normalized earnings estimate from $12 to $11 per share, applying a price-to-earnings multiple of 30 to reach its $330 price target.
Apple's new iPhone release schedule changes the picture
Apple isn't following its usual iPhone release schedule in 2026. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max arrived in September, while the foldable iPhone Duo is scheduled to reach customers on October 23.
The standard iPhone 18 wasn't part of the September launch and isn't expected until early 2027. Apple supplier Pegatron previously supported reports of the revised schedule, which moves a major part of Apple's fall lineup into the following year.
iPhone DuoComparisons with 2025 are difficult because Apple launched the standard iPhone 17 alongside its Pro models that September. Customers had more choices, and retailers had more new devices to stock.
With fewer models available in fall 2026, shipments could decline even if consumer demand hasn't changed.
JP Morgan made a similar argument in an October 12 assessment. Its analysts linked lower December-quarter expectations to Apple's split launch schedule, and was incredibly skeptical if reported component production cuts indicated actual sales drops from weaker demand.
Research firm Counterpoint reached a similar conclusion in its October 12 report. It attributed much of Apple's third-quarter shipment decline to the missing standard iPhone 18.
Apple still captured 22% of global smartphone shipments during the quarter, its highest third-quarter share on record. The overall smartphone market fell 20% year over year as memory shortages limited production and higher prices discouraged purchases.
Counterpoint's display research projected that iPhone 18 Pro panel shipments through October would exceed the comparable 2025 period by 2%. Including the iPhone Duo raised the projected increase to 7%.
In China, iPhone 18 Pro sales increased 23.5% year over year during the first three weeks. Counterpoint suggested that some customers may have chosen a Pro model rather than wait for the standard iPhone 18.
The figures suggest Apple's premium models are performing better than the overall shipment decline indicates.
However, display orders don't necessarily translate into purchases. Strong early sales also don't guarantee sustained demand throughout the holiday quarter.
Analysts disagree over weakening iPhone demand
Loop isn't the only investment firm concerned about Apple's latest iPhones. Jefferies analyst Edison Lee warned Monday that demand for the Pro models was weakening. He pointed to shorter delivery times than in 2025, falling resale prices, and cuts to component orders.
Jefferies found that delivery waits for both Pro models in China had fallen to zero, which is not uncommon in mid-October.
The 2025 selling cycle was the exception to the rule. At a comparable point in 2025, customers waited six days for the iPhone 17 Pro and 25 days for the Pro Max.
iPhone 18 ProThe firm's supply chain checks suggested that Apple had cut orders for certain components, including 2-nanometer processors, by 10% to 15%. However, some suppliers estimated that planned iPhone assembly had fallen by only about two million units.
Those figures follow earlier production-cut claims by a sketchy supply chain source of the entire iPhone 18 Pro line that we questioned in October. At the time, sources said whole-unit assembly orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max hadn't been reduced.
While it may be true that iPhone 18 Pro orders were down, that's not true across the entire line, as iPhone 18 Pro orders had been increased, as we said.
Shorter delivery times can indicate weaker demand, but they can also mean Apple has enough inventory to fill orders immediately. Likewise, fewer component orders don't always mean fewer finished iPhones.
Apple may also be adjusting production schedules and distributing components among different models. The disagreement extends to the company's expected product mix.
Loop forecasts more iPhone shipments in 2027 but substantially less revenue. A higher proportion of cheaper iPhones could lower average selling prices even as total sales volumes increase.
Apple may recover some shipments when the standard iPhone 18 arrives in 2027, but Loop's forecast leaves a key question unanswered. The available supply chain data and analyst guess-work can't establish how many of the 13 million units represent completely lost sales rather than purchases delayed by Apple's revised release schedule.
