Satellite operators are in panic mode due to a worsening launch crisis

This is because of an inescapable reality: Without SpaceX, the Western launch market would have been completely screwed over the last half-decade.

The war in Ukraine

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This took Russian rockets off the table for Western countries, including European nations. Most immediately impacted was OneWeb, which lost some satellites already in Soyuz launch processing and eventually had to turn to a direct competitor, SpaceX and its Falcon 9 rocket, to complete its constellation.

The loss of the Soyuz and Proton rockets for Western commercial purposes came at the same time that two other leading providers were shutting down their older rockets for newer models. In Europe, the transition from the Ariane 5 to Ariane 6 rocket was underway. Across the pond, United Launch Alliance sought to end its dependence on Russian engines for the Atlas V rocket by migrating to the new Vulcan rocket.

Both projects had initially targeted completion by 2020, but by the time of the war’s outbreak, neither new vehicle was close to flying for the first time. Effectively, this meant that Arianespace and United Launch Alliance had a dwindling number of older rockets that were already spoken for.

Two solid-fueled boosters and a Vulcain 2.1 main engine propel the Ariane 6 rocket into the sky over French Guiana.

The war also offered a chance for two Asian nations with ties to the West, Japan and India, to step up. Both countries, with the H3 rocket in Japan and LVM3 in India, had been seeking to support the commercial satellite industry. But the H3’s debut slipped to 2023, and the first launch ended in failure. The eighth launch of the vehicle in 2025 was also a failure. To date, the vehicle has not been a commercial success and averages only a handful of launches a year. India’s LVM3 has launched even fewer times, just once or twice a year.

Amid all the opportunities to respond to Russia’s retreat from the Western market, only one company stood up. As Russian soldiers marched into Ukraine, SpaceX was beginning to perfect the reuse of the Falcon 9 rocket’s first stage. The company flew the Falcon rocket 31 times in 2021. By 2023, this number nearly tripled to 91 rockets.