Hopes were high for Apple TV and F1 streaming in early 2026, but a recent set of data suggests that things fell off sharply in May and viewership has been down double digits since.

Statistical analysis of viewership numbers is a tricky game on its own, especially when dealing with viewership numbers on Apple platforms. Samba is an analytics company that thrives on data obtained, often without the user's knowledge, thanks to being embedded in smart TV software.

Apple, however, is a company that offers the Apple TV set-top box and the Apple TV app, sans Samba. Given that, a report from USA Today on data obtained from Samba is an interesting peek into Apple's deal with F1.

The primary focus of the report is on two events being down over 60% in viewership numbers: Miami in May down 68% and Monaco in June down 66%. The Canadian Grand Prix at the end of May was down 23%.

We're supposed to take this data, and the remaining races being down double digits, as some kind of terrible outcome for Apple's partnership. However, the worst of the numbers may fall into "tough compare" territory.

The report notes a rather important piece of information about midway through — Miami's, Monaco's, and Canada's races were broadcast on ABC in 2025, which drove two million or more viewers for those races. Note that broadcasting these races on a network like ABC is an advantage for Samba's tracking systems.

Bar chart showing year-over-year decreases in F1 grand prix household viewership for Australia, China, Japan, Miami, Canada, Monaco, Barcelona, Austria, and Britain, with Miami, Canada, and Monaco dropping most

Samba's data shows a decline, but it could also be a decline in Samba's visibility. Image source: Samba and USA Today

ESPN helped F1 see its biggest viewership numbers in 2025 with about 1.3 million viewers per race across ESPN, ESPN2, and ABC. However, Apple itself confirmed that F1's 2026 debut race in Australia beat ESPN's viewership numbers.

Samba's chart shows that race viewership is down 4%. Obviously, these are two contradictory datapoints, but that doesn't mean either is wrong.

Let's get into these numbers and why they may not represent what Apple and F1 are seeing.

Samba has limited insight

One of Apple's most prideful positions is on privacy-preserving hardware and software. Anyone that watched F1 on an iPhone, Mac, Apple TV, or via the Apple TV app on Android smartphones didn't get their viewership numbers recorded by Samba.

Samba will see if a viewer watched an F1 race if it is being watched on a smart TV that is connected to the internet, running Samba at the base OS level, and is showing content on the screen. Only then will it get viewership data through direct access to data shown in a streaming app on the TV or through pixel-peeping content.

For example, if you've got an Apple TV and your smart TV isn't connected to Wi-Fi, Samba won't get your data.

So, logically, when Apple took over F1, Samba's ability to sight on the total F1 viewer base likely took a significant hit. That's why Apple can say they beat ESPN viewership numbers by some margin while Samba claims a 4% decline.

There are other factors at play. Australia, China, and Japan were all races that took place at very odd hours for American viewers. Those numbers were likely always terrible from Samba's point of view, so that was an easy comparison.

Then come multiple complicating factors starting in March. Several races had to be canceled due to the American and Iranian war destabilizing the Middle East, creating a large gap before the race in Miami.

Older man with short gray hair and glasses wearing a large communication headset, seated indoors in a modern room with wooden panels and tech equipment in the background

Apple is all in on F1 until 2030 given the current contract

Then, as I mentioned before, the races in Miami, Canada, and Monaco were broadcast on ABC in 2025, meaning vastly larger viewership numbers over 2 million on average. Not only did that mean Samba could see more viewers than normal in 2025 thanks to being on ABC, but see less in 2026 due to Apple's privacy-focused platforms.

Combine that with a cooling off of more casual fans due to the gap in scheduling and you've got a perfect storm. The fact that Canada only saw a 23% drop in viewership year-over-year understanding those metrics makes it all the more impressive.

Monaco was another sharp 66% drop in viewership likely exacerbated by Apple's privacy controls. We have no idea if viewership was actually down, but we do know Samba's view of available data shrunk significantly.

The report concludes that fans dropped off because they watched initial races on a free trial and let it run out. That doesn't seem consistent with the data shown, especially since Samba is missing data from where most Apple TV users might be watching — on Apple hardware.

I'm not dismissing Samba's data. It's certainly real and absolutely what the company could collect, but I'm questioning the conclusion here.

Samba wants to say this means viewership is down, but I want to argue that this could also just as easily mean Samba's view into user habits is lower. While I'm sure F1 did see a dip in viewership numbers for the reasons I shared previously, I wonder if they are nearly as sharp as Samba's data suggests.

For now, we should all take this with a grain of salt until Apple or F1 comments on the season's viewership numbers. Apple and F1 have a contract for US streaming rights through 2030.