“Once you can track this debris, and if you can track it well, these are like obstacles on a road. If you can measure them, you can predict where they’re going to be, and you can avoid them,” Nicolls said. “What you can’t avoid is other operators who maneuver without telling you where they’re going to go. We have many examples of this on Starlink, unfortunately.”
Nicolls presented several examples of satellites from other operators closely approaching Starlink satellites as they zip around the Earth at 5 miles per second. The examples did not suggest nefarious intent, such as spying or an attempt at striking a Starlink in orbit. Instead, the other satellites conducted maneuvers and changed their trajectories without their owners informing anyone.
“Either they were not publishing their ephemeris to us, or they were not considering the ephemeris of others when they were maneuvering, and these led to conjunctions of tens of meters to hundreds of meters,” Nicolls said. “Way too close to comfort.”
Michael Nicolls, senior vice president of Starlink at SpaceX and president of xAI, speaks at the International Astronautical Congress in Antalya, Turkey, on Tuesday, October 6.
Credit: International Astronautical Federation
Michael Nicolls, senior vice president of Starlink at SpaceX and president of xAI, speaks at the International Astronautical Congress in Antalya, Turkey, on Tuesday, October 6. Credit: International Astronautical Federation
An ephemeris contains information about a satellite’s location and movement. Some operators may not want to share this information, believing secrecy might provide a competitive or strategic advantage. But if spaceflight is to be sustainable, it is vital to err on the side of openness rather than secrecy.
“The minimum standard in low-Earth orbit needs to be that you know where your satellite is, and you know where it’s going. You need to be able to predict where your trajectory is, and that prediction needs to be reliable,” Nicolls said.
SpaceX lauds itself as the benchmark for orbital stewardship. It pretty much has to be, with so many Starlinks in orbit and so much of its business relying on space.
The company has lowered the altitude of the entire active Starlink constellation below 500 kilometers (310 miles), an adjustment that provides three benefits. It moved the network away from other heavily trafficked regions in low-Earth orbit, expedited reentry for any failed Starlink satellites, and improved service for Starlink customers. All of SpaceX’s new-generation Starlink V3 satellites, which began launching on the company’s Starship rocket last month, will fly even lower, at about 350 kilometers (217 miles).